You've already caught on that 12/48 and 13/52 is the same final drive ratio. My experience which is extensive on a mid 30hp 200 honestly is a 12/48 final, there are other variables such as internal ratios, but that would be overcomplicating everything.
What I found in my type of tight woods riding which tends to include some nasty muck, roots, ruts and such that the smaller rear sprocket lived longer and made a noticable difference in the amount of "muck" that would carry up and wad up the front sprocket. As such, I have left the 48 tooth at that for a very long time. I favor an 11 front sprocket for most of my light riding with friends as it keeps my speed down in line with what they ride, you will find a noticeable snap running 4.4 ratio compared to your current 4.0, but will also notice the sprocket will wear out much quicker because of the smaller contact area.
The 12/48 is a great racing setup for eastern woods I can run into my overrev and carry some decent speed in 3rd/4th without the busy shifting you will run into at the 4.4 ratio. The wear on the 12/48 front sprocket is faster than the rear but lasts much longer than the 11.
The 13/48 puts you into a 3.7 ratio which I find great for more open territory where you need to run for more extended times at higher speeds, I find this gearing to be extremely comfortable to ride with 90% of the time, my engine pulls it nicely, alot of the snap is gone so it is not viable on the MX track and in the tight single track I abuse the clutch way to much to make it work, but get me into some grass track or sand and it makes the bike a real joy compared to the tighter gearing. I have crazy hours on my 13 front sprocket with no notable wear, i beleive it to honestly be the only 13 I've bought. I go through 11's like candy, I keep a few spares, and 12s regular enough to keep one spare in my caddy. I never let my front sprocket wear past a point where i can see a noticable hook as I don't want to cause undue wear on my chain.
So tailor it to what you find you like but trust that you need to make a more appreciable difference in your final ratio than you would think to have a noticeable difference, changing 1 or 2 teeth on the rear sprocket IMO you'll never feel, and you'll just end up chasing your tail one day when you want to replace it and they've only got standard in stock, besides, a supersprox lasts a crazy long time, kinda silly to shelve that and end up buying a new front and rear sprocket when the front is all you need. I always felt most comfortable replacing the rear sprocket and chain as a set and servicing the front sprocket on an as needed basis.
final comment, pull the chain off your rear sprocket at the rear, if you can see an appricable gap replace the chain when you replace this front sprocket as it is likely been worn enough to affect your sprocket life front and rear. With the quality of oring chains and beyond of today, you will find you cause more wear to the chain itself running on worn sprockets than under adverse conditions/dirt. A chain will always be tensioned on a worn sprocket when engaged in an attempt to match the pitch of the wear on the teeth.
